Netflix vs my childhood memories

Podcast: Netflix vs Blockbuster

By: Business Wars

Link: https://art19.com/shows/business-wars?seasonId=72448799-667a-48b2-96de-2c2d97420f46

Notes:

In the early 2000’s, Netflix’s DvD by mail business model was eating into Blockbuster revenue. Blockbuster spent 25 million dollars and took 6 months to copy the Netflix model as exactly as they could from the website to their distribution center, even using dirty tricks like sending covert agents to go on tours of the facilities and take pictures.

Blockbuster’s new service (Total Access) was an immediate success, but it was priced lower than Netflix and also came with vouchers that allowed people to drop off their DvDs at the brick and mortar stores and then immediately get a new DvD as well. It was estimated that they needed 5 million subscribers to turn a profit but they were on their way, and it was eating into Netflix’s subscription numbers.

Carl Icahn bought a huge portion of Blockbuster as a corporate raider and hated John Antioco and eventually pushed him out, and replaced him with someone who wanted to undo everything he did, including Total Access. They raised the price and reduced the vouchers and immediately started losing customers back to Netflix.

Initially the streaming library on Netflix was very sparse. Netflix knew they needed content, and so for years would buy the rights to the digital content from the major studios/media outlets. Many were reluctant to sell the rights, but the Great Recession of 2008 worked in Netflix’s favor and many companies became more willing to negotiate that year.

For a while Netflix and the companies that sold it digital rights enjoyed a mutually beneficial relationship where they would give Netflix rights to their older seasons, which gave Netflix better content and then brought in more viewership to some of the series, and people went to the source for the new seasons.

With their success, Netflix knew it was just a matter of time before the companies selling them the digital rights wanted to go into the streaming services themselves, so they focused on obtaining original content. House of Cards became their first major success.

This was modelled after HBO, and for a while it was race between Netflix and HBO to determine which one would copy the other’s model more successfully first. HBO had a streaming service called HBO GO but it was locked behind the pay wall of having HBO and a cable service, so it was far more expensive to use.

One of Netflix most valuable assets is their underlying algorithms and data on what users watch, what they’ll enjoy, how they like to watch. They employed this time and again to stay ahead of the competition, doing things like introducing binge watching because of the way it affected users in such a positive manner.

Just in the Sputnik of time

Podcast: The Space Race | Starting Gun

By: American History Tellers

Link: https://art19.com/shows/american-history-tellers/episodes/52ad3aea-8c1b-4774-bd6d-17c5799f9441

Notes: 

Werner Von Braun was a key part of the Nazi V-2 Rocket Program. Near the end of WW2 he and his team were deliberately captured by the Americans and settled in Huntsville Alabama to prevent their knowledge from going to the Soviets.

The thought was that rockets combined with atomic weapons would give the host nation an insurmountable lead in the years to come.

Von Braun’s potential degree of involvement with pretty horrific war crimes under Nazi rule was ignored and deliberately glossed over. Supposedly he just wanted to build rockets to get to space.

Because of his German background he wasn’t fully trusted by American politicians and military figures.

This led to his projects not being allowed to put a satellite into orbit, and allowed the Soviets to take the lead with Sputnik. This created a huge fear in America about ceding space to the Soviets.

Tim Sweeney is coming for you.

Article: Fortnite Is the Future, but Probably Not for the Reasons You Think

Author: Matthew Ball

Link: https://redef.com/original/5c599eb966c7bb710656c824

Hype

  • – Fortnite’s revenue is large but not unprecedented, especially if you include China.
  • – Free to play is nothing new. Also, other free to play games are cheaper to develop and maintain.
  • – Cross Platform games already exist. Though Fortnite’s success convincing Sony to be a part of this was rather amazing.
  • – Having 200MM registered accounts, 5MM active players and another 4MM via  stream watching their season six live finale is significant.
  • – Epic has other successful games, and it seems likely that the Battle Royale pivot was planned, not accidental.

Common thought is that without a defined story/character IP that Fortnite might not have longevity.

In terms of average revenue per user per year, Fortnite beats the four major social media giants combined. This comparison is interesting because the platform has become somewhat of a social square  where friends and families meet up and play from one to one and a half hours per day, vs thirty minutes for Snapchat or Instagram.

Some challenges to Unreal are a major competitor in Unity, the fact that most major publishers don’t use it, and that cloud based gaming could drastically reduce the value of a multi platform engine like Unreal.

The Epic games store becomes more powerful when you consider that Fortnite has given them over 200MM accounts. They now have a really broad reach they didn’t have before.

The Metaverse

Perhaps the most interesting take is if you think about Fortnite in the context of Sweeney’s desire to make a virtual universe where users have the ability to pay, sell, and buy, and there’s a real economy where Epic’s goal is to facilitate this, not obscenely profit directly from it.

Marshmello (a top 10 DJ) held a live concert entirely inside Fortnite that was attended by more than 10MM accounts, with millions more watching on streaming services.

Fortnite is already a social hub. It’s monetization is based on identity (avatars, skins, cosmetics)

They’ve had in game events such as Thanos from the Avengers, NFL jerseys, or Wreck It Ralph. Here the fact that Fortnite doesn’t have an IP is powerful. You wouldn’t be able to do this in Warcraft.

Having a multi platform capability, and a somewhat open situation to have multiple “tenants” to their world means they could start the Metaverse right here and right now.

Thoughts:

One thing not mentioned in the article is that because Unreal is free to use, and taught in many curriculums means that in just a few years there will be an entire generation of Fortnite (and Epic) fans that will be extremely well versed in their engine. This could increase the pressure of the major publishers to use these engines to speed up development times and decrease costs.

When the Greek Alphabet turns menacing.

Podcast: Space Radiation

By: Astronomy Cast

Link: http://www.astronomycast.com/2019/01/ep-515-space-radiation/

Notes:

There are four main types of radiation one can encounter:

Alpha particles: Protons. Blocked by the skin. Potentially dangerous if inhaled or consumed.

Beta particles: Electrons.

Gamma rays (and X Rays): Photons.

Charged nuclei: Galactic cosmic rays and solar events.

On earth we’re mostly safe from these because of our magnetic field and atmosphere but in space travel and the surface of other worlds they’re extremely dangerous. Astronauts on long flights have a much higher risk of cancer.

The Van Allen Belts that surround Earth contain a lot of these particles and are a risk to electronic equipment that passes through them.

Solar flares are extremely dangerous for unprotected humans and electronics. The Apollo missions were lucky that the Sun stayed quiet and didn’t release any major flares in our direction during them.

There are various ideas for shielding spacecraft (surrounding them with water or soil, or generating magnetic fields) but none are really feasible with current technology.

The best bet for explorers on other worlds is living underground.

Balloons would never be the same.

Video: The Impossible Element Hiding in the Sun

By: SciShow Space

Link:

Notes:

The first periodic table didn’t include space for the noble gases – since they don’t react with anything they’re very hard to detect through chemistry.

Helium was discovered in space due to a solar eclipse in the 1860s before it was discovered on Earth in 1895 through radioactive decay of Uranium.

By looking at light through a prism, scientists discovered that you can distinguish different types of light by looking at its spectrum.

Light generated by burning different element has a unique collection of dark lines. This is due to each element absorbing light at specific wavelengths. This is governed by quantum mechanics. Atoms absorb photons at different wavelengths, and this behavior is unique to each element.

The solar eclipse allowed scientists to get a spectrum that included Helium from the Sun’s corona by blocking out the main spectrum.

We use spectroscopy to learn about composition of all kinds of things that emit or reflect light. We can even study the atmospheres of planets orbiting other stars.

If it weren’t for Nixon, we’d have humans that were born on Mars by now

Book: How We’ll Live on Mars

Author: Stephen L. Petranek

Notes:

Werhner von Braun was a Nazi SS Officer who was taken to the US after the war and wrote a book called Das Marsprojekt which has been an instrumental piece of work outline the necessary steps for travel to Mars to this day.

Nixon’s decision to scrap the Apollo program in favor of the Space Shuttle program was the turning point of advancing our space exploration capability. The military wanted the Shuttle Program as a way to launch and repair spy satellites.

It’s likely the first humans on Mars are going to be the result of private enterprise, not government agencies.

Mars could be a gateway for asteroid mining, either for rare mineral extraction back to Earth or back to Mars.

Large mirrors in space reflecting more sunlight to Mars’ surface is one of the most feasible ways to warm up parts of the planet and start a greenhouse effect cycle of getting more carbon dioxide and water vapor in the air to build even more heat.

My thoughts:

Even though the book is only four years old, a lot of the dates are already incorrect. None of the private companies are as far along as they predicted they would be. As someone else who is aggressively futurist I can relate to the disappointment of technology not being as far along as I want it to be.

If we had kept NASA’s budget at 4% of government spending and kept up the focus we had during the Apollo program, we’d have humans on multiple planets and moons across the solar system by now, and be awash in rare resources and probably much more advanced technology and energy generation methods. Such a shame.

It was cool reading this after the Red Mars Trilogy to get a bit more hard science and see some real life progress being made on Mars missions.

Life, uh, finds a way

Podcast: Planetary Protection Protocols

By: Astronomy Cast

Link: http://www.astronomycast.com/2019/01/ep-514-planetary-protection-protocols/

Notes:

Based on how likely a destination is to have life on it, there are different levels of cleaning and decontamination spacecraft must undergo before being launched.

The idea is that we don’t want to carry life with us that could potentially be an invasive species on a different planet and destroy or otherwise negatively impact native life.

When the protocols were first written up, we weren’t aware of the potential for life on many places we now think it could reside, such as Titan, Ceres, or even the gas giant planets.

Also, the methods used to clean some of the earlier Mars missions such as Viking I and II would not have necessarily have killed some of the extremophile life we now know exists.

Tardigrades are awesome.